Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research outlined the possibility of a rerun from the presidential election.
In a report published on February 1, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research outlined the possibility of a rerun from the presidential election. The report pointed to the tight race between leading candidates, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peter Obi of the Labour Party, and Atiku Abubakar of the Labour Party. As a factor that could lead to political tensions and domestic insecurity in the country following the outcome of the elections.
With all candidates considered strong contenders for victory, Fitch said it believed that a repeat election was likely if no clear winner emerges from the March 9 polls. The report also noted that tensions have already been heightened due to pre-election violence and increased political rhetoric across parties, further heightening expectations for a potential rerun.
The report said:
“At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our view that the All Progressives Congress’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is most likely to win Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election”
The report also noted that a Tinubu victory would break the long-standing Christian-Muslim alternation of the presidency. which has been a feature of Nigerian politics since the country’s return to democracy in 1999.
This could lead to increased social tensions between religious groups, as well as erode the confidence of citizens in their government. The report also highlighted Obi’s growing popularity and stated that the 2023 presidential vote would be a three-horse race for the first time.
Thus, representing a stark departure from the two-party contest between the APC and PDP in recent elections. This could signal an end to decades of dominance by these two major parties. Furthermore indicating a more even spread of political power across Nigeria in the near future.
It said:
“We believe that the Labour Party’s rise in popularity is likely to split the opposition vote, favoring the ruling APC. Indeed, we expect that Obi. A Christian from the South East — will do well in states in Nigeria’s South East and South-South regions, which traditionally have been PDP strongholds.”
